Crewe Alex v Cheltenham Town 24/25 Preview - Life Support

Urgh. Just when you thought the Alex had dodged any of the horrendous Thursday night Sky games, they get pinged with one in their 3rd to last home game. I suppose we should be grateful they avoided any away games being moved like this, but this will now be their 7th of 18 originally scheduled Saturday 3pm kick off home games to have been altered by either Sky or themselves. How does the club think the TV deal is a good idea again? Anyway, here is my preview of the visit of Cheltenham to Gresty Road:

Life Support

Going into the Grimsby game, it was a must win. They did. Well, after losing on Saturday and Grimsby winning pushed the gap to 4 points again, this game becomes a must win. They need it not just for their confidence, which will have taken a hit on Saturday, but to put the pressure back on the teams above them.

A win here would temporarily move them to 8th and 1 point off the top 7. Fail to do so and given Grimsby are travelling to Harrogate and Colchester play Newport, the gap could move to a prohibitive 6-7 points with only 12 to play for if they fail to snag 3 points. This really is a must win, otherwise their season will go from life support to brain dead.

Dropping Off

I was going to say Cheltenham were a mid-table side and how they have been consistently inconsistent this season. But that isn't quite the story recently. They come into this game in woeful form. They've won 5 of their last 19 games since beating the Alex on Boxing Day and have lost their last 4, all without scoring. Whatever faint hopes they had for a late top 7 push have fizzled out and it'll be interesting to see how up they are for this game given their season is pretty much done and dusted at this point.

Underlying Stats

The Alex should feel more confident given the Robins' woeful stats as well. They are 23rd in xG and have overscored that total by a staggering 14.1, the highest in the division. They are 21st in big chances, 19th in shots on target per game, 23rd in accurate passes, 21st in corners and 21st in touches in the opposition box. Those are just their attacking stats.

Defensively it isn't much better. The 5th most goals conceded, 5th in clearances and 8th in saves shows their defence is often under pressure and usually buckles, given they've only kept 8 clean sheets. This is a flawed Cheltenham team which can be got at.

Dropped Points

There are whole list of reasons why the Alex's season hasn't gone to plan. But dropped results in various home games definitely deserves a place high on the list. Failing to beat Bradford, Doncaster and Wimbledon despite leading all 3. Failing to get a point out of the Vale game. Losing to Fleetwood, Newport and Accrington. But their defeat in the reverse fixture at Whaddon Road on Boxing Day could be argued as one of their biggest collapses. 1-0 up and cruising, the managers tactical decisions led to the Robins coming back into the game, winning and ending the Alex's long unbeaten run.

It's been a season of huge let downs at home and for that reason they need to be targeting 9 points from their last 3 games at Gresty Road. Especially given Cheltenham and MK are stuck in mid-table or lower and Walsall are falling apart. 9 points from those 3 games puts them on 70 points and whilst that probably won't be enough, it gets them in the conversation, especially if they can find a win against either Colchester or Tranmere. But 3 wins from their final 3 home games is very achievable, starting with this one.

Scheduling

It's not a hugely relevant point to this game, but somehow the Alex at home to Cheltenham always seems to end up being on in one of the warmer months. And by warmer months, I count that as August, September, March, April or May. Of the 13 trips Cheltenham have made to Gresty Road in the league, this will be the 10th time they've faced each other during one of those months. The Alex are 6-1-3 in those meetings. Let's hope that good record continues.

Ref Watch

Declan Bourne

I can't say Bourne stands out for anything good or bad to be honest. His red card given to a Crewe player was Omar Beckles in the 2-0 defeat at Wigan in 20-21, which was a fair cop. Hopefully his non-descript record carries on in this game.

2024/25 Record: 23 games(11 League One, 7 League Two, 1 National League, 1 League Cup, 1 FA Cup, 2 EFL Trophy), 91 yellows, 2 red

Last Game: Charlton 4-0 Huddersfield, EFL League One, 29th March 2025, 1 Yellow

Crewe Alex Record: 3-0-3, 7 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The injuries are once again starting to mount for the Alex. Thomas, Tabiner, Holicek and now Lankester, who limped off on Saturday, could be absent. Will any of them be fit for this game? I'd be surprised at this point, especially given Owen Lunt's recent recall.

Cheltenham

The Robins will be without Tim Dieng, who was sent off against Doncaster. Luke Young, Matty Taylor and Ryan Bowman(who looks set to be released) will probably also be absent.

Team

Assuming none of the players mentioned above are fit to play, they are starting to run out of attacking options. Again. For the 3rd time this season. It would leave them with just Bogle, Hemmings, Long and the now rarely used Thibaut to choose from, with no attacking midfielders/wingers available.

I'm going to hate myself for saying this, but a back 5 might be their only option at this point. Williams, Demetriou and O'Riordan start across the back, Sanders and Powell(won't happen) come in to midfield, Conway and Billington go to wing back and Long and Hemmings start upfront. That's about all I got at this point.

The bench would have a few options still in Knight-Lebel, Agius, Cooney, Thibaut and Bogle, so not that strong, but not decimated either.

Score Prediction

It's hard to know what we're going to get from them at this point. They looked poor against Port Vale, ok against Grimsby and poor against Bradford. But then they are playing a Cheltenham team who can't seem to buy a result at the moment. But then but then, Cheltenham having nothing to play for could lead to a strange result like a 3-1 defeat or something like that. I'll stay positive and predict they'll grab a win.

Crewe Alexandra 2-1 Cheltenham Town