Crewe Alex v Crawley Town 23/24 Preview - Inconsistent

Is there a little bit of pressure on the Alex in this game? No, that would be ridiculous. But I just wonder, given how nervy their last 2 performances were, if the pressure is starting to get to them as we enter into the final third of the season. The play-offs are starting to look less like a pipe dream and more like a realistic possibility and I wonder if that is starting to weigh on the players somewhat.

We saw the 11/12 group suddenly tighten up in the final few games and there were even small signs of it in 19/20 before Covid stopped the league. Will it affect this group? It shouldn't, given they have promotion winners in Cooney, Offord, Turns and Thomas. But seeing how they handle the increasing pressure will be interesting to see. Game 31 is against the inconsistent Crawley. Here is my preview of the game:

Dominant

Unlike against Salford and Tranmere, the Alex have had no issues beating Crawley over the years. In fact, it's been almost entirely in their favour. They have lost just 3 of their 19 match ups, including only one at home and of course comfortably dispatched them back in October. They have won their last 4 straight against Crawley at Gresty Road by a 12-2 margin. I hope they find a way to keep that excellent run against the Red Devils going.

Inconsistent

Crawley are having a much better season than anyone expected. After a big summer overhaul, where most of their established starters left and a bunch of misfits and non-league journeymen came in, most pundits predicted them to finish in the bottom 2. Well, with 18 games to go in their season, they are comfortably in mid-table and look set to finish far away from the relegation zone.

That being said, they are wildly inconsistent. They have just 3 draws in 28 games, showing they are a very boom or bust team. After going 5 unbeaten in September and 5 without a win in October, they have become a win-loss-win-loss sort of team. Their longest unbeaten run from November onwards has been 2. Their longest winless run has been 2. What version of them we'll see at Gresty Road remains to be seen.

Bounce Back

That being said, after their limp home defeat to Morecambe last Saturday, manager Scott Lindsey vowed to up their intensity. So I'm fascinated to see how they approach this game. I'm expecting them to be much more hard and physical and the Alex will have be wary of them, as I think they'll come out of the traps quickly and look to get ahead early.

Momentum

The Alex need to win this game more than we think, for several reasons. The first is for momentum. 3 points here sets them up nicely to go to Stockport with plenty of confidence. It helps keep the teams below them at a safe distance. It'll move them to within 5 wins of 70 points(well, almost) and keep the teams above them sweating.

But most importantly of all, it gets them back on track at home. I've been critical of their all round displays at Gresty Road, as I think they've gotten a few results in spite of their performances at home, not because of them. Against a mid-table Crawley, who yes can't be underestimated, this is a perfect chance to put in a good showing and get a good result.

Ref Watch

Martin Coy

It's only been a few months since Coy was last at Gresty Road, having taken charge of their home win over Doncaster back in November. I'll repeat here what I said in that last preview:

"The 6 year EFL referee is no stranger to Gresty Road, having visited 6 times in his career. What stands out though is that he’s not a particularly card happy ref, or at least he wasn’t until this season. In just 12 games, he’s issued 55 yellows and 3 reds. His Alex record is superb though. His 6 visits have seen them win 5 and lose only once, with the 6 games bringing 21 goals. Hopefully he’s something of a good luck charm."

Turns out he was. More of the same please Martin.

2023/24 Record: 17 games(8 League One, 7 League Two, 1 EFL Cup, 1 FA Cup), 76 yellows, 3 reds

Last Match: Cheltenham 1-3 Wycombe, 3rd February 2024, League One, 3 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 6-1-2, 8 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The Alex's injury list unfortunately seems to be growing again. Zac Williams' prognosis seems worrying and he looks to be joining Powell and Lunt on the long term injured list. Finney and Tabiner seem to be closing in on returns, but the return date of Tabiner keeps being pushed back and back. Tom Booth will be out several weeks with a collapsed lung, but thankfully they seemed to have avoided a truly serious long term issue with him and might only miss the next 2-3 games it seems.

Crawley Town

Crawley look in pretty decent shape injury wise. They were missing defender Jay Williams from their squad last week and Ben Gladwin has also been out since just before Christmas. But they look like the only 2 big absences from their squad.

Team

I'm shaking up the team for this one. If you keep Offord in midfield, as you absolutely should, then Thomas does not start. You don't need both of them in a home game where you want to impress your style. Another factor with Thomas is that he's 1 booking away from a 2 game suspension. He'll get it sooner or later, but I'd rather he was available for Stockport personally. So I'd take him out of the starting lineup for that reason also.

I'd be looking at getting more technical and more attack minded players into the midfield. I want to see Austerfield start alongside Offord. Yes he's not an attacking midfielder, but he would be able to get on the ball and also get forward more easily than Thomas can. Then, I'd be be looking at starting Holicek. If Bell wants to play 4-2-3-1, then Holicek in the number 10 role is the only option that makes sense at this point. Personally, I really like the balance of that midfield.

The front 3 would be Long, Nevitt and Rowe, but CBR, Tracey and Kirk should be ready to give them options later in the game if they need to change it. The back 4 remains the same as against Tranmere, with Davies coming in to replace the injured Booth in goal of course. Keiran Westwood has signed a short term deal as emergency cover, which makes sense as the alternative was putting Miki Lenarcik on the bench.

Score Prediction

I'm hopeful with Crawley sputtering in mid-table and the Alex's excellent record against them that we can hope for a win here. They need a decent home performance to set them up for the next 3 in February, which all look very tricky. Regardless of what team and formation they play, they should carry enough form and confidence into this one to emerge with the win.

Crewe Alexandra 3-1 Crawley Town