Crewe Alex v Fleetwood Town 24/25 Preview - Wildly Inconsistent

What a difference a few weeks makes. Walking away from Gresty Road after the Newport game, everyone felt flat and the season felt like it was imploding. But now, 21 days later, they are starting to build a little unbeaten run, they've scored 6 goals in their last 2 and now they're looking upwards rather than downwards. But in their way are a dangerously inconsistent Fleetwood side who could dismantle them by a comfy scoreline or roll over and lose heavily. That scares me. Can the Alex make it 3 straight wins for the first time since September or will the Cod steal away a result? Here is my preview:

Wild Swings

Fleetwood are undergoing a ridiculously up and down season. They've enjoyed the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, all whilst averaging being sat in 13th position. They've taken 6 points off Walsall and managed results against Bradford, Cheltenham and Notts County. But they've also lost to Morecambe and Carlisle and drawn with Tranmere in recent weeks as well. They are a baffling team that just has no consistency game to game.

Perhaps no player in their squad encapsulates erratic form quite like Ryan Graydon. Stuck on 3 goals for the season and having not scored since December, he's suddenly found a rich vein of form and has 4 in his last 3 games. He'll likely be the Cod's dangerman.

Heavy Schedule

Fleetwood have been paying the price for having a number of games called off for International call ups from earlier in the season. This will be their 4th straight Tuesday fixture as they've been busy playing catch up on the games in hand they had. They've had to manage away trips to Grimsby, Bromley and Gillingham in the last few weeks and this will be their 6th away game in their last 8 going back to the start of February. This is sure to have left them feeling fatigued. How will they be feeling now after such a punishing run of games?

High Risk, High Reward

Fleetwood are an open and expansive team. They have the 4th best xG in League Two with 44.7, which funnily enough is just 0.4 off their actual total. But at the other end, they've given up 44.3, which is just 3.3 off their actual total and the 7th worst in the league. It shows that whilst they boast a pretty decent attack, their defence has been partial to giving up lots of big chances as well. This could be an entertaining game.

Tough Run

The Alex have just 3 games left against sides in the bottom half and 2 of them come in the final 3 games against MK Dons and Tranmere. I'm not saying this game is favourable, as I mentioned above Fleetwood can embarrass even the best teams on their day. But after this game, they face a run of 8 straight games against top half sides. They have to make the most of this opportunity and beat a side whose season mostly involves playing for pride at this point.

Ref Watch

Benjamin Speedie

Speedie is a ref that feels he's been around for over a decade. I was shocked to realise this was only his 5th season in the EFL. I can't say his is a name that has stood out, although he was in charge of the Alex's epic 4-3 win over Salford 2 seasons ago. If this game is half as entertaining as that one, I'll happily take it.

2024/25 Record: 30 games(1, Championship, 13 League One, 9 League Two, 1 National League, 2 League Cup, 4 FA Cup), 98 yellows, 2 reds

Last Game: Morecambe 0-2 Walsall, League Two, 22nd February 2025, 1 red

Crewe Alex Record: 2-1-3, 14 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The long absence list is starting to really shrink thank god. Conor Thomas, Chris Long and Omar Bogle are now back, we're now down to Lankester, Hemmings, Demetriou, Connolly and Finney. Only 5? I'd almost forgotten what such a short list feels like.

Fleetwood

The Cod will be down a number of players in all probability. Zach Medley, James Bolton, Matty Virtue, Kian Harratt, Harrison Holgate and Ronan Coughlan all missed Saturday's game against Notts County, so they won't be at full strength, especially up front and at the back.

Team

More tough decisions. Stick or twist. They went to a back 5 against Chesterfield which in hindsight was the right call to combat the Spireites possession and attack heavy approach. But against a Fleetwood side averaging just 47% possession this season and at home, is a back 5 the right approach to take in this one?

Well, the better question would be: Is Lee Bell willing to drop one of his big 3 CBs to go to a back 4? All available evidence says he won't, although I wouldn't be against dropping Knight-Lebel for a game. It's not that he's been poor, far from it, but he'd be the easiest one to make way for me if going to a back 4 made sense.

Whilst I don't think Bell will go this route, I'd revert to the same shape as against Barrow. Drop Knight-Lebel, recall Sanders and go with the simple 4-3-3 that worked in that game. I suspect Bell will stick with a similar shape to Saturday, but perhaps drop one of Tabiner or Holicek for a rest and bring back Sanders for more of a 3-5-2.

Score Prediction

Fleetwood do concern me as mentioned above. But, the Alex are full of confidence after 2 straight wins, have players returning and the feel good factor around the club is well and truly back. Now, that often means the bubble is about to pop, but I'm really hoping it doesn't this time. I do think we're about to see an open game and my gut feeling is the Alex will need to score at least 2 and maybe even 3 to win this one. So I'll go with a high scoring affair.

Crewe Alexandra 3-2 Fleetwood Town