Crewe Alex v Grimsby Town 24/25 Preview - 6 Pointer

We often say games are 6 pointers. But this game right here is a true 6 pointer. The Alex's entire play-off hopes rest on this one game. Maybe that's overselling it, but I don't think it is. The Alex are 4 points behind the Mariners currently. A win for Grimsby here puts them 7 points clear of the Alex and that feels like way too big of a mountain for the Alex to climb.

But as low as we all feel after Saturday's damp squib, win here, move 1 point behind Grimsby regardless of what Colchester do and it's things up nicely for a grandstand final 6 games. It's time for the Alex to show us whether they are contenders or pretenders.

Written Off

Maybe this is what they need. A low crowd with low energy is likely. Plenty will go into this game writing them off and giving them no chance to win. But perhaps this is what they need. They surely know that their season is on the line and a win here is their only realistic chance to keep their play-off hopes alive. Whilst I doubt we see them play with new freedom or confidence, perhaps being the underdogs will help them get a result.

Looking Back

The Alex ditched Artell 3 years ago and whilst I don't think anyone is revisiting or regretting that decision, if he was to win here to put his new side one foot in the L2 play-offs whilst leaving the Alex under his replacements replacement on the outside looking in, it will raise some interesting questions. And I'm sure Artell will cast a little look up to the padded seats in the main stand towards the Alex's board and say "I told you so" quietly to himself. He's going to be extra motivated to prove them and the Alex fans who wanted him wrong, that's for sure.

Always Draw v Never Draw

I mentioned before the reverse fixture that Grimsby were going through a similar experience under Dave Artell that the Alex went through under him in his first couple of years at the club. This very much remains the case. They are 7th in the table, but have a goal difference of -1. They have drawn just 5 games, the fewest in the division. They are either good and win or bad and lose. There is very little in between.

As for the Alex, they are the polar opposite. They have lost x fewer than Grimsby but won x fewer as well. They are the draw specialists. So which outcome will come out on top in this game? The Alex's dreary consistency or Grimsby's wild inconsistency?

Away Record

I know I bring up records a lot, but Grimsby's away record is ridiculously streaky. They lost their first 3, but then went unbeaten in their next 7. Then it was 4 straight defeats, followed by another 5 game unbeaten run. They've had some very impressive away results along the way mind, beating Wimbledon, Doncaster, Walsall and Colchester. They are a team that knows how to win on the road. They lose a few, but Artell has got them set up perfectly in that sense.

Overachieving

Grimsby are in the top 7 on merit, no doubt. But a look at the underlying numbers and it's hard to see a reason why they are in there. 17th in clean sheets, 9th in xG, 17th in xGA, 17th in accurate passes, 17th in accurate crosses. They are clearly a tough team to play against, but if the Alex can draw on how comfortably they dispatched the Mariners in the reverse fixture in December, then they can win. And in turn, keep their promotion hopes alive.

Ref Watch

Paul Marsden

Marsden is an unusual ref in the sense that he came into the EFL in 2018-19 and stayed there for 2 seasons. But after the pandemic, he was back in the non-league for several seasons, only this season returning to the EFL in small doses. Does this speak to performance issues I wonder?

2024/25 Record: 17 games(4 League Two, 10 National League, 3 EFL Trophy), 80 yellows, 2 reds

Last Game: Barnet 1-0 Dag & Red, National League, 8th March 2025, 5 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 1-0-1, 3 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

Whilst we know Finney, Connolly and Tracey won't feature, we now have to see if Joel Tabiner can shake off whatever issue he picked up on Saturday. Also, Conor Thomas's knock which ruled him out of the Vale game will be one to keep an eye on also.

Grimsby Town

The Mariners look to be down a few players for this game. Lewis Cass, Justin Obikwu, Charles Vernam and Callum Ainley(shock!) all missed Friday's trip to Colchester, but generally they don't seem to be missing any of their key performers.

Team

I'll keep saying it, even though I know it won't happen. Play. A. Back. 4. But for me, I am making some changes which might seem counter productive, but there is logic to them. For a start, I'm dropping Max Conway to the bench. He looks out on his feet and were this not a midweek game so soon after a Saturday, I might start him. But he desperately needs a break, so I'm starting with Zac Williams(I know, I know) at LB. It's not ideal, but what choice have they got? Demetriou, O'Riordan and Billington round out the back 4.

In midfield, I'm recalling Sanders and Powell, again, to play alongside Lowery in light of Thomas' absence. Upfront, I'd have Long on the left, Hemmings down the middle and Holicek on the right. Which again, isn't ideal. But again, what choice have they got?

Score Prediction

I'm not going to instantly say defeat, but I feel like it probably will be. But then, the Alex to their credit don't lose back to back games too often and Grimsby are very inconsistent still. I think this game will sum up the Alex's season and end level. Keeping their season on life support for another week or so.

Crewe Alexandra 1-1 Grimsby Town